Ryan Fernandez's standing in the Cardinals bullpen may shift drastically in just one year

A right-hander from Florida drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 23rd round of the 2018 MLB draft, Fernandez scuffled through injuries in 2022 and then posted a robust earned run average in his first exposure to the Triple-A level of the minors.

Still, the Cardinals plucked him out of the Red Sox farm system in last December’s Rule 5 draft.

In less than a year, Fernandez turned himself into a legitimate major league high-leverage reliever, a win for the Cardinals front office and coaching staff and a potential option to step into an even bigger role as the club leans into its youth movement.

“The biggest (takeaway) is just confidence of knowing I can be successful here for a whole season,” Fernandez said during the final homestand of the regular season. “Just knowing that I’m capable of getting through a whole season and doing well, and then handling those leverage situations pretty well.”

Fernandez, who hadn’t thrown a pitch in the majors prior to this past season, finished the year as one of the relievers the Cardinals leaned on pivotal situations with the game on the line.

They had no shortage of those scenarios this season. The Cardinals played 107 games decided by three runs or fewer, including 51 one-run games.

Of the 285 batters Fernandez faced this season, 151 came in either high-leverage situations (91) or medium-leverage situations (60) according to Baseball-Reference.com. He finished the season with 12 holds and two saves (five chances). He finished 16 games for the Cardinals.

“I wouldn’t say those spots are really ever comfortable, but I do enjoy the pressure of being in that spot and I have had a lot of experience in the minors, coming up, doing the closing role and high-leverage stuff,” Fernandez said. “Obviously, it’s a little different in the big leagues because the games matter a little more. But I have always loved having that pressure spot, and the team trusted me to be in there and keep us in the lead or close or tied or whatever it is.”

Andrew Kittredge set a club record for holds (37) as the Cardinals’ primary setup man in 2024. However, the 34-year-old is now a free agent, and the Cardinals may choose to go with younger in their bullpen.

Left-handed setup man JoJo Romero set career highs for innings (59) and appearances (65) on his way to collecting 30 holds, but his effectiveness wavered late in the season. Before the All-Star break, Romero posted a 2.43 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, compared with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP after the break. He finished the season on the injured list (forearm flexor inflammation).

All-star closer Ryan Helsley set the single-season franchise record for saves (49). Helsley is coming off of the most dominant performance of his career thus far and has just one season remaining before he can become a free agent. That likely makes him a potential trade candidate either this winter or during the coming season.

The Cardinals bullpen could look very different by the start of spring training.

“Of course, I would love to one day maybe be a closer,” Fernandez said late in the season. “But obviously I have my work cut out for me, especially with Helsley in this bullpen. But yeah, end goal. That would be awesome. I would love to be a closer.” 

Fernandez, who turned 26 in June, registered a 3.51 ERA, 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .236 opponents batting average (plus .667 opponents on-base plus slugging percentage).

The Cardinals pitching staff felt Fernandez could “reconnect” with some elements of his repertoire he’d shown in the past, particularly with the movement on his fastball.

In spring training, they saw enough progress with the adjustments they asked Fernandez to make that they felt it was worth holding on to him and giving him a chance in their bullpen.

Initially, he’d been the low man on the totem pole. He and his mid-90s fastball didn’t make their first appearance until the seventh game of the season. His first three outs in the majors all came via strikeouts against the San Diego Padres.

Asked what stood out about Fernandez’s progress over the course of his first season with the Cardinals organization and his first season pitching in the majors, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol didn’t have to contemplate for long.

“The poise,” Marmol said. “He’s not letting the game speed up on him. He is the same regardless of what situation you put him in. I mean, it could be a big situation and he just stares down that tunnel and is like, ‘Here we go.’ I love that about him.

“I think (third base coach) Pop Warner was the one that said it the other day, ‘Man, this guy just sits out there, chews his gum and doesn’t give a (expletive) about anything. That’s pretty spot on. He’s just like, ‘Who is on the box? Let’s go!’ We’ve seen that grow, the confidence, the presence, the overall conviction behind ‘I know my stuff. I know it’s good, and I’m going to let it eat.’”

While pitching at Double-A and Triple-A with the Red Sox in 2023, Fernandez posted an ERA of 4.14 with a WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) of 1.31 and opposing hitters batted .254 against him in 54⅓ innings.

In his time solely at Triple-A (30⅔ innings in 26 games), his ERA shot up to 6.16 with a WHIP of 1.57 and opposing hitters batted .302 against him.

This season while making the jump to the majors for the first time, Fernandez posted an ERA of 3.51 to go along with a WHIP of 1.35 and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 66⅔ innings. He also gave up half as many home runs (four compared to eight) as the previous season.

What about that difference in his fastball?

Well, Fernandez sometimes refers to it as “ride.” Marmol refers to it as the “vertical break” on the pitch.

Fernandez certainly utilized a different pitch mix this season. At times in Triple-A, he’d leaned on his sinker and cutter in outings. This season, the majority of his offerings were either his slider (used 48.2% of the time) or his four-seam fastball (40.3% of the time) which average 95.5 mph.

Fernandez’s slider graded out as the third-best pitch on the Cardinals staff in terms of run value, behind Lance Lynn’s four-seam fastball and Helsley’s slider this season, per MLB Statcast metrics.

“I think there’s more there too with the consistency of that mix and how he uses it, and, throughout the year, having consistency with the vertical break on the fastball where that doesn’t waver either,” Marmol said.

Even with the improved results from 2023 to 2024, Fernandez described his mechanical adjustments and his pitching delivery as “spotty” throughout the season.

Fernandez’s stellar rookie season hit a speed bump in August. He allowed runs in three consecutive outings for the first time all season. Fernandez later acknowledged that he’d been pitching through illness as well as back stiffness.

Three different teams, the Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals, each enjoyed success against him at that time. He allowed five runs on seven hits, and opponents batted an eye-popping .636 during that brief stretch. He blew a save, and he did not record a strikeout during that three-game span.

He didn’t pitch for a five-day period following his rocky outing in Kansas City. Fernandez said it wasn’t until after those struggles in August that he stop pitching “so mechanically.”

After that short respite, he’d seemed set to steamroll to the finish line of his rookie season. However, a blown lead in the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field took some luster off his finishing kick.

In that final appearance on Sept. 26, he allowed four runs on three hits and one walk in one inning against the Colorado Rockies.

From Aug. 16 through Sept. 24, Hernandez appeared in 16 games (15 innings) and allowed three runs and posted an ERA of 1.80 with hitters batting .200 against him. He’d walked 10 and struck out 21, and he’d recorded a save and two holds in that stretch.

Fernandez went into the offseason planning to get back to the type of training program that produced a significant jump in velocity the past.

“I think the biggest thing for me is putting a little bit more strength back on,” Fernandez said. “This year, I’ve had a little bit less strength than I had the last two years. That showed in my velo, just a little.

“I’m not way down. The only reason I say that is because I topped 99 (mph) the last two years, and I haven’t hit 99 this year. It’s not a big deal. I’ve shown I can be very successful without that. I just would like to have that in my back pocket if I want it.”