Bears vs. Lions game picks: Can Chicago pull a massive upset in Week 11?

Yeah, I know. That’s a big number on the Lions’ side of things. I’m also aware that Chicago is getting some key guys back from injury, most notably star quarterback Justin Fields. But I’m sorry, I won’t let the alluring distraction of Fields blind me to the reality of things: the Bears are not a good team, while the Lions are one of the NFL’s best. They are better offensively and defensively, and have a much more competent coaching staff. The Bears will be thoroughly beaten by the game’s end, and I don’t think it’s really up for debate.

Let’s start with the offense, which will be the workhorse on which the team’s hopes for a win will ride on. It’s so relieving to have Fields back in the lineup; there’s only so much Tyson Bagent I could take before I went off the deep end. Fields showed significant growth in his last two full games before his injury, and I think the mature passer and decision maker will be present for Sunday’s game. That means the vertical offense should be a major factor in the game, which digs right at the Lions’ weakness as a defense. His signature running ability should help the rest of the running backs make plays as well, which will help Khalil Herbert get back into playing shape should he be activated from IR. Overall, the offense should be much more effective in putting the ball in the endzone; it’s the defense that’s the problem.

Oh, the defense — is there any way to put this where it won’t sound so dire? I’ll just say it: they’re going to be cooked. Chopped liver. The dust beneath the Lion’s feet. The unit is respectable against the run, that much can be said, so the dynamic duo of former Bear David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs shouldn’t kill Chicago. What will put the Bears into hibernation is Detroit’s pass game, combined with the defense’s failings in getting to the quarterback and tackling in space. Chicago is right down there with the worst in the league in defending the pass and getting home in the pass-rush, and they’ve been horrid as of late when attempting to bring down ballcarriers. Could this be the breakout game for the secondary and front four? Possibly, but they weren’t able to do much against a subpar Panthers offense, so there’s no reason to expect the Bears to put up much resistance to one of the best offenses in the league. There’s just no jumping through mental hoops to reach a favorable conclusion in this aspect; Chicago is going to be ripped apart on broken plays and Detroit’s air attack.

With all this considered, I’m choosing the Lions to change the winds of fate and get a rare win over the Bears, 40-23. Fields and the offense will make things fun as it turns into a bit of a shootout, but the Lions will pull away and lay on a 40-burger against the good guys.